Is it just me? But... prices headed downhill!

[the jayce]

It seems the last three months the heritage price values are nose diving! I have been watching 150's only fetching 850-900 on ebay, then seen some rediculous low prices on some 555's and 157's as well going for 1100. Definetaly great for the buyers but not so much for us owners if we decide to sell or trade later.

 

Maybe it's just me but values seem to be taking a big dive real quickly. 6 months ago a good deal on a 150 would have been about 1100, and 157's and 555's about 1400-1600. I have a gibby semi hollow im going to be selling very soon to snatch another heritage with so I guess I cant complain because it looks like I will be able to get an awsome deal on a 555 im wanting to add to the herd. But it sure seems heritages should be headin in the up direction, even in this economy.

[Patrick]

It seems the last three months the heritage price values are nose diving! I have been watching 150's only fetching 850-900 on ebay, then seen some rediculous low prices on some 555's and 157's as well going for 1100. Definetaly great for the buyers but not so much for us owners if we decide to sell or trade later.

 

Maybe it's just me but values seem to be taking a big dive real quickly. 6 months ago a good deal on a 150 would have been about 1100, and 157's and 555's about 1400-1600. I have a gibby semi hollow im going to be selling very soon to snatch another heritage with so I guess I cant complain because it looks like I will be able to get an awsome deal on a 555 im wanting to add to the herd. But it sure seems heritages should be headin in the up direction, even in this economy.

 

 

jayce; It's just basic supply and demand economics. For the most part, the people who are buying and selling Heritage guitars are not the affluent. They are working class blue collar professional and hobbyist musicians. Some have fallen on hard times and they are selling guitars due to financial needs. Others are selling because they don't really play that much and would rather have the cash than the guitars . . . almost financial needs. However, as more and more of these instruments come on the market . . . . and less and less of the blue collar type people have the discretionary funds to buy them . . . . the demand goes down as the supply continues to go up. Very basic supply and demand economics. The prices aren't going down because the of quality of the instruments, or because the desire for them is subsiding.

 

Heritage guitars have not yet hit their stride with affluent collectors. I expect that will eventually happen. I have personally seen one such case myself. I met a gentleman and his wife while waiting outside a local restaurant to be seated. He was showing some teenagers his newest toy. It was a brand new Ford Mustang Shelby Cobra . . . . which is, for all intents and purposes, an $80,000 Ford Mustang. I'm very familiar with the car and he caught my interest as well, so I went over to look under the hood as they were chatting. I was wearing my brand new, PSPIII tee shirt. As soon as he saw the tee shirt . . . the car and the 3 teens seemed totally unimportant to him. He shut the hood, turned off the car walked over to me and asked what I knew about Heritage guitars. Turns out he's a serious collector with 75 guitars . . . . . 6 of them Heritages. He had some work his company was doing up in Kzoo . . . walked into the plant and ordered a couple more.

 

I told him about HOC. I am emailing him the particulars this AM. He wants to join our club. When more people in his tax braket catch the Heritage "bug" . . . these instruments will really take off in value. His company is Mahinery Services Corp., Paterson, NJ. www.servicer.com I will not violate his privacy by giving his name. I'm sure he'll give us a shout out when he joins our club. His company and its' web site are already in the puiblic domain, so I'm sure he won't mind me mentioning them.

[Dick Seacup]

The economy is in the crapper and despite the assertions of those who wish to remain in power and those who wish to suck up to those who wish to remain in power, it isn't improving any time soon. It's a question of demographics and multiple cycles hitting a downturn at the same time. The baby boomer generation, the largest generation of American consumers ever, is hitting the point in the curve where they aren't spending. The next largest demographic, the so-called "echo boom" generation, still much smaller than the baby boomers, has just passed the peak of their age-related spending curve. It's a slow slide for them for about another 10-15 years, when they'll have a small up-tick and a brief, lower peak before slinking off into retirement land as well.

 

Now, you take the demographic pressure and push in the cyclical drop in equities (there is a ten year cycle, a four-year presidential cycle and another one that's longer but I can't remember what it's tied to; all three happen to be past their peak and heading into the trough again at the same time, though) coupled with the current commodity bubble nearing it's own peak (which will be followed, of course, by a decline) and you have a perfect storm brewing for an American version of the Japanese lost decade.

 

Except we're going to lose 15-20 years, not 10. And American's don't have the savings or relative wealth that the Japanese did when they started their slide. In fact, many American's have negative net asset value/net worth because they leveraged their McMansion's, using what equity they had as an ATM to fund their consumerist (some would say hedonist) lifestyle. There simply isn't going to be the purchasing pressure needed to keep the USian economy going at pre-2008 levels, and thus we need to readjust production, consumption and priorities. The amusing thing is that Our Government seems to not want to admit that no matter what Keynesian sleight of hand they employ, they don't have enough fingers to plug the dike. All of this deficit spending and massive over-expansion of government Will Not End Well because government revenues necessarily decline as economic participation is reduced. Jacking up the tax rates, fees and assessment only accelerates the decline.

 

Kondratiev had this figured out, in a rudimentary but significant fashion, back in the 1920s. Unfortunately, Comrade Stalin didn't like being told that he couldn't control nature and Comrade Kondratiev was "purged." It's interesting (perhaps only to me) to note that other economists...I think in Italy, but possibly France...had the nearly the same idea, although their long-wave cycles had periods shorter than Kondratiev's. Now, after the demise of our Russian friend, there was a battle in the West between the interventionist/socialist Keynesians and the laissez-faire Classical economists. To it's credit, Keynesian policy works in the short term. To it's demise, in the long run it causes massive distortions in the economy which dwarf the dangers of the initial crises.

 

At this point I will share one of my favorite "My Old Man" sayings: "Son, when you find yourself at the bottom of a deep dark hole, the first thing you ought to do is put down the shovel."

 

Much of long-wave theory has been updated and refined. There are many cycles, most of which interact in meaningful and complex ways. It's almost fractal, in a mind-boggling way. I think the writings and theories of Harry Dent are as good a place as any to start reading about modern long wave theory and I highly recommend doing so for anyone interested in where we've been, where we're at and where we are likely to be going. No system is infallible, and long wave has it's faults. It's interesting from a left-brain perspective.

 

Which brings us back to the price of Heritage guitars in the used market. There will be isolated dips and swells, of course, but I think the general trend for Heritage in the secondary market is to maintain, or slightly improve, their price strength, and thus value, relative to other brands of similar quality.

 

Of course, I'm a raving lunatic who only has access to the Internet for an hour each day in between group sharing and electroconvulsive therapy, so ignore most of what I just said. Oh, look, time for my lithium and thorazine....

[JohnCovach]

The investors I know are hunkering down for the long haul; none expects the economy to improve much in the medium-range future (2-5 years). As ever, past losses are no indication or guarantee of losses in the future . . .

[JeffB]

The economy is in the crapper and despite the assertions of those who wish to remain in power and those who wish to suck up to those who wish to remain in power, it isn't improving any time soon. It's a question of demographics and multiple cycles hitting a downturn at the same time. The baby boomer generation, the largest generation of American consumers ever, is hitting the point in the curve where they aren't spending. The next largest demographic, the so-called "echo boom" generation, still much smaller than the baby boomers, has just passed the peak of their age-related spending curve. It's a slow slide for them for about another 10-15 years, when they'll have a small up-tick and a brief, lower peak before slinking off into retirement land as well.

 

Now, you take the demographic pressure and push in the cyclical drop in equities (there is a ten year cycle, a four-year presidential cycle and another one that's longer but I can't remember what it's tied to; all three happen to be past their peak and heading into the trough again at the same time, though) coupled with the current commodity bubble nearing it's own peak (which will be followed, of course, by a decline) and you have a perfect storm brewing for an American version of the Japanese lost decade.

 

Except we're going to lose 15-20 years, not 10. And American's don't have the savings or relative wealth that the Japanese did when they started their slide. In fact, many American's have negative net asset value/net worth because they leveraged their McMansion's, using what equity they had as an ATM to fund their consumerist (some would say hedonist) lifestyle. There simply isn't going to be the purchasing pressure needed to keep the USian economy going at pre-2008 levels, and thus we need to readjust production, consumption and priorities. The amusing thing is that Our Government seems to not want to admit that no matter what Keynesian sleight of hand they employ, they don't have enough fingers to plug the dike. All of this deficit spending and massive over-expansion of government Will Not End Well because government revenues necessarily decline as economic participation is reduced. Jacking up the tax rates, fees and assessment only accelerates the decline.

 

Kondratiev had this figured out, in a rudimentary but significant fashion, back in the 1920s. Unfortunately, Comrade Stalin didn't like being told that he couldn't control nature and Comrade Kondratiev was "purged." It's interesting (perhaps only to me) to note that other economists...I think in Italy, but possibly France...had the nearly the same idea, although their long-wave cycles had periods shorter than Kondratiev's. Now, after the demise of our Russian friend, there was a battle in the West between the interventionist/socialist Keynesians and the laissez-faire Classical economists. To it's credit, Keynesian policy works in the short term. To it's demise, in the long run it causes massive distortions in the economy which dwarf the dangers of the initial crises.

 

At this point I will share one of my favorite "My Old Man" sayings: "Son, when you find yourself at the bottom of a deep dark hole, the first thing you ought to do is put down the shovel."

 

Much of long-wave theory has been updated and refined. There are many cycles, most of which interact in meaningful and complex ways. It's almost fractal, in a mind-boggling way. I think the writings and theories of Harry Dent are as good a place as any to start reading about modern long wave theory and I highly recommend doing so for anyone interested in where we've been, where we're at and where we are likely to be going. No system is infallible, and long wave has it's faults. It's interesting from a left-brain perspective.

 

Which brings us back to the price of Heritage guitars in the used market. There will be isolated dips and swells, of course, but I think the general trend for Heritage in the secondary market is to maintain, or slightly improve, their price strength, and thus value, relative to other brands of similar quality.

 

Of course, I'm a raving lunatic who only has access to the Internet for an hour each day in between group sharing and electroconvulsive therapy, so ignore most of what I just said. Oh, look, time for my lithium and thorazine....

^^^^^

This....

 

 

"Son, when you find yourself at the bottom of a deep dark hole, the first thing you ought to do is put down the shovel."

Wouldve been cool if someone told me this a few times along the way.

[Patrick]

The economy is in the crapper and despite the assertions of those who wish to remain in power and those who wish to suck up to those who wish to remain in power, it isn't improving any time soon. It's a question of demographics and multiple cycles hitting a downturn at the same time. The baby boomer generation, the largest generation of American consumers ever, is hitting the point in the curve where they aren't spending. The next largest demographic, the so-called "echo boom" generation, still much smaller than the baby boomers, has just passed the peak of their age-related spending curve. It's a slow slide for them for about another 10-15 years, when they'll have a small up-tick and a brief, lower peak before slinking off into retirement land as well.

 

Now, you take the demographic pressure and push in the cyclical drop in equities (there is a ten year cycle, a four-year presidential cycle and another one that's longer but I can't remember what it's tied to; all three happen to be past their peak and heading into the trough again at the same time, though) coupled with the current commodity bubble nearing it's own peak (which will be followed, of course, by a decline) and you have a perfect storm brewing for an American version of the Japanese lost decade.

 

Except we're going to lose 15-20 years, not 10. And American's don't have the savings or relative wealth that the Japanese did when they started their slide. In fact, many American's have negative net asset value/net worth because they leveraged their McMansion's, using what equity they had as an ATM to fund their consumerist (some would say hedonist) lifestyle. There simply isn't going to be the purchasing pressure needed to keep the USian economy going at pre-2008 levels, and thus we need to readjust production, consumption and priorities. The amusing thing is that Our Government seems to not want to admit that no matter what Keynesian sleight of hand they employ, they don't have enough fingers to plug the dike. All of this deficit spending and massive over-expansion of government Will Not End Well because government revenues necessarily decline as economic participation is reduced. Jacking up the tax rates, fees and assessment only accelerates the decline.

 

Kondratiev had this figured out, in a rudimentary but significant fashion, back in the 1920s. Unfortunately, Comrade Stalin didn't like being told that he couldn't control nature and Comrade Kondratiev was "purged." It's interesting (perhaps only to me) to note that other economists...I think in Italy, but possibly France...had the nearly the same idea, although their long-wave cycles had periods shorter than Kondratiev's. Now, after the demise of our Russian friend, there was a battle in the West between the interventionist/socialist Keynesians and the laissez-faire Classical economists. To it's credit, Keynesian policy works in the short term. To it's demise, in the long run it causes massive distortions in the economy which dwarf the dangers of the initial crises.

 

At this point I will share one of my favorite "My Old Man" sayings: "Son, when you find yourself at the bottom of a deep dark hole, the first thing you ought to do is put down the shovel."

 

Much of long-wave theory has been updated and refined. There are many cycles, most of which interact in meaningful and complex ways. It's almost fractal, in a mind-boggling way. I think the writings and theories of Harry Dent are as good a place as any to start reading about modern long wave theory and I highly recommend doing so for anyone interested in where we've been, where we're at and where we are likely to be going. No system is infallible, and long wave has it's faults. It's interesting from a left-brain perspective.

 

Which brings us back to the price of Heritage guitars in the used market. There will be isolated dips and swells, of course, but I think the general trend for Heritage in the secondary market is to maintain, or slightly improve, their price strength, and thus value, relative to other brands of similar quality.

 

Of course, I'm a raving lunatic who only has access to the Internet for an hour each day in between group sharing and electroconvulsive therapy, so ignore most of what I just said. Oh, look, time for my lithium and thorazine....

 

As far as I can tell, Nikolai Kontratiev didn't even have 1 Heritage guitar. So, even though, in a sense, he predicted the great depression and is the father of the term K-Cycles . . . . how can anyone believe him?? Think of it . . . . not even 1 Heritage guitar!!! I mean . . . what did he play?? A Gibson??? Come to think of it . . . Timothy Geithner doesn't own any Heritages either . . . nor Ben Bernanke . . . or Greenspan. WHOM are we to believe??? Let's just keep buying them thar Heritage geeetars!!!

[the jayce]

Great input on this subject! It's a shame that 85% of the u.s. citizens wont make it another 2 years financially.. Everyone is still trying to pay for the 40+ years they where ahead of thier paychecks, only problem is you have to have a job to accomplish that, and unfortunately new job growth or any jobs for that matter is all but a myth in this country anymore.

 

 

 

 

 

Only good thing comming out of the crumbling of the u.s. economy is some awsome buys on the best guitars ever made! I can live with that

[JohnCovach]

One tough aspect of the current economy is the way it has hit live music. People have so many choices competing for their entertainment dollar and then add a reduction in disposable income. We have especially noticed it this summer, and not only with the bands I play in and not just in my area.

 

I have to say, if my income depended on performing I'd be mighty concerned just now about prospects for the next few years.

[GuitArtMan]

Take a look outside. Prices are down everywhere. It's a buyers market right now. Don't believe the obamanation when he tells you things are getting better. We haven't hit bottom yet.

[FredZepp]

I'm a little less pessimistic about our situation. My business has picked up and doing well.

 

I think that we were headed full throttle towards a cliff (Great Depression II) and we slammed on the brakes.

In typical fashion we expected to hit the brakes and the car would instantly stop and go the other direction,

like there is no inertia present in this universe.

 

At least , the Friedman theories were wholy discredited in the process.

 

And so I do see the slow return back to more realistic Heritage prices.

 

I had observed that due to the working class being squeezed financially, the craigslist prices for Epiphone grade guitars really dropped... Lots of people selling and few buying...

[Dick Seacup]

One tough aspect of the current economy is the way it has hit live music. People have so many choices competing for their entertainment dollar and then add a reduction in disposable income. We have especially noticed it this summer, and not only with the bands I play in and not just in my area.

 

I have to say, if my income depended on performing I'd be mighty concerned just now about prospects for the next few years.

 

I just went to The Black Keys concert at The Fillmore in Detroit on Saturday. It was a packed, standing-room-only, sold-out show. The opening band were some young kids (I swear they looked to be about 14 years old) who weren't half bad. In my not-so-humble opinion, Big Music is dead. The only groups that are going to survive are the bands that perform live, a lot...as in making it their full-time job and treating it as such...and those who leverage technology for distribution and sales direct to end users. This is not a revolutionary prediction/thought.

 

With that being said, let me tell you what I think the biggest hurdle facing live music locally is. Around here, and this may be different for you, we have all of these kids who think being a rock star is cool. So, they volunteer to play for FREE! This drives out the working musicians. The quality of the music declines. The crowd thins out. Pretty soon we're down to one place with live music in a town of 45k, drawing from a surrounding population of say 100k, and it's the pretentious espresso shop. Actually, they're not that pretentious, I just like saying that. I will give them credit, though, they keep two acts busy every week and have never succumbed to the "free music" trap.

 

It seems to me that the thing to do would be for some of these older, more experienced musicians to pull the young guns aside and start a mentoring relationship about the business aspects of gigging. Not that you have to get rich playing, but damn wouldn't it be nice if you could put food on the table instead of living on handouts?

 

Just random thoughts...

[Dick Seacup]

At least , the Friedman theories were wholy discredited in the process.

 

I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

Heh.

[FredZepp]

I find your ideas intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

Heh.

Ok , I had a premonition that this might catch your eye...

 

I do find intriguing the thoughtfull insights that you offer on the music business.

I certainly see the struggle for working musicians and hadn't considered the effect of the young "free" bands.

A lot has to do with people just feeling comfortable enough financially to invest in an evening watching a good band and buying enough drinks etc to keep everyone in business.

[tulk1]

I just went to The Black Keys concert at The Fillmore in Detroit on Saturday. It was a packed, standing-room-only, sold-out show. The opening band were some young kids (I swear they looked to be about 14 years old) who weren't half bad. In my not-so-humble opinion, Big Music is dead. The only groups that are going to survive are the bands that perform live, a lot...as in making it their full-time job and treating it as such...and those who leverage technology for distribution and sales direct to end users. This is not a revolutionary prediction/thought.

 

With that being said, let me tell you what I think the biggest hurdle facing live music locally is. Around here, and this may be different for you, we have all of these kids who think being a rock star is cool. So, they volunteer to play for FREE! This drives out the working musicians. The quality of the music declines. The crowd thins out. Pretty soon we're down to one place with live music in a town of 45k, drawing from a surrounding population of say 100k, and it's the pretentious espresso shop. Actually, they're not that pretentious, I just like saying that. I will give them credit, though, they keep two acts busy every week and have never succumbed to the "free music" trap.

 

It seems to me that the thing to do would be for some of these older, more experienced musicians to pull the young guns aside and start a mentoring relationship about the business aspects of gigging. Not that you have to get rich playing, but damn wouldn't it be nice if you could put food on the table instead of living on handouts?

 

Just random thoughts...

I see this same very debate on our local Craigslist every week. It gets quite heated.

[111518]

In the interest of healthy exchange, and with great respect for Mr. Seacup, I'd like to point out there are other possible modes of explanation for the current crisis, other "long-swings" in history. After a generation (1945-65) in which differentials in income narrowed in the United States, the concentration of wealth since the 1980s has widened to match the extremes of the late 1920s. Just as in those years, that concentration has not been the result of a "free" market, but rather of tax, labor, regulatory, and public resource policies that actively encouraged the concentration of wealth and power. Both David Stockman and Alan Greenspan, profits of free markets and "supply-side" economics, now admit that the assumptions that connected supply-side economic to widely-beneficial economic growth overestimated the rationality and social responsibility of the regulated-by-private-power market: these men seem well positioned to judge the results of the policies they so directly shaped, but, since they now advocate regulation and taxation --a swing back towards social responsibility-- are dismissed by the true believers.

 

This is not simply an economic matter of no demand among a public too poor to buy the products that might be produced, it has also produced the growing differential of political power that insures that investment banks are too-big-to-fail and individual homeowners are too voiceless to matter. The strength of this equation of corporate power and individualism is seen in the recent Supreme Ct. decision that applies "free speech" protection to private corporate contributions ...in violation of precedent and certainly in violation of the understanding of limited liability corporations that prevailed at the time the constitution was written.

 

To go back to the 1920s, the end of another period of conservative political domination, Hoover had three years to pursued deficit reduction strategies to "right" the US economy. That story did not end well: the product was starvation in the US, an international depression of unprecedented scale, the rise of Nazism. Americans tend to ignore that it was the insistence of the people of Western Europe that, after the suffering of WWII, they not be plunged again into the marginal existence of the 1930s that led to the rise of the modern Welfare State, just as rejection of Hoover led to political realignment in the United States and the institution of Social Security, new labor law, etc. These were measures that redistributed wealth and, no doubt, "distorted" the paths these economies would have otherwise followed, but they also maintained social stability and democratic values.

 

Now, as in the 1920s/30s, the crisis is political as well as economic. I would argue that the mode of reasoning that Mr. Seacup employs frames the current problem as a threatened intervention in the economy by politics, as though the two exist in isolation. But a counterargument might be made that this is not a new intervention at all, but rather a political correction to a time when the intervention has favored existing wealth and power, an intervention necessary to redistribute power and wealth and to re-establish a more healthy foundation for both democracy and capitalism. This was FDR's argument about the New Deal. The workers that in the 1950s enjoyed a better standard of living because of unions and the GI bill and, in old age, social security, helped fuel the economic growth of that golden era of the American economy. Critics in the 1930s were sure the New Deal would undermine initiative and put American on the road to socialism. That's not how most of us remember the 1950s. Is it possible that better health/more efficient health care, better access to education, encouragement of energy innovation, and a better standard of living for those currently at the bottom of our society might spark a new period of economic well being. (I won't say "growth" --time to challenge that assumption, I think.)

 

What does this interpretation say about Heritage guitars? Well, in the 1930s, there was reborn in America a cultural appreciation of the worker and craftsmanship and functionality. If similar currents re-emerge, it would bode well for Heritage, I think. If people care not just about economic efficiency, but the quality of life that surrounds production ... that bodes well for Heritage.

[Gitfiddler]

Wow, there are some very bright folks here at the HOC! Good insights from all posters. Now we take a nose dive with my 2 cents.

 

We've all seen the economy hit our respective cities and towns very hard over the last couple of years. Many of my friends are really struggling to make ends meet. I agree that it will take several more years for the current economy to reverse, but am confident it will recover. In the midst of it all, there will continue to be many more unfortunate financial casualties along the painful way to the long awaited recovery. I'm really glad to see that Heritage is still churning along, making some of the best products they've ever made. Also, with marketing limited mostly to word of mouth, they have carved out an incredible niche in the extremely competitive new guitar market. The greatest joy to me is that they are 100% Made In The USA!! No sub-standard, entry-level import versions!!

 

In the meantime, as good old Economics 101's supply and demand kicks in, prices on Heritage guitars and other luxury items will certainly continue to take it in the gut, especially on the used guitar market.

 

Interestingly enough, the price of a new off-the-shelf or custom ordered Heritage seems to remain a relative bargain IF you plan on keeping it for a long time.

 

Aside from current market conditions and a struggling economy, there remains the intangible joy of playing these instruments. The joy of playing a new or used Heritage guitar? Priceless!

[Dick Seacup]

Now, as in the 1920s/30s, the crisis is political as well as economic. I would argue that the mode of reasoning that Mr. Seacup employs frames the current problem as a threatened intervention in the economy by politics, as though the two exist in isolation.

 

Nothing happens politically that doesn't manifest economically, and vice versa. In fact, I have frequently illustrated the nature of the relationship between politics and economics as being that of a coin...two sides of the same "thing." Philosophy, of course, being the edge that joins the two, thereby creating a manifold which none of us will ever escape. (How sad)

[Patrick]

In the interest of healthy exchange, and with great respect for Mr. Seacup, I'd like to point out there are other possible modes of explanation for the current crisis, other "long-swings" in history. After a generation (1945-65) in which differentials in income narrowed in the United States, the concentration of wealth since the 1980s has widened to match the extremes of the late 1920s. Just as in those years, that concentration has not been the result of a "free" market, but rather of tax, labor, regulatory, and public resource policies that actively encouraged the concentration of wealth and power. Both David Stockman and Alan Greenspan, profits of free markets and "supply-side" economics, now admit that the assumptions that connected supply-side economic to widely-beneficial economic growth overestimated the rationality and social responsibility of the regulated-by-private-power market: these men seem well positioned to judge the results of the policies they so directly shaped, but, since they now advocate regulation and taxation --a swing back towards social responsibility-- are dismissed by the true believers.

 

This is not simply an economic matter of no demand among a public too poor to buy the products that might be produced, it has also produced the growing differential of political power that insures that investment banks are too-big-to-fail and individual homeowners are too voiceless to matter. The strength of this equation of corporate power and individualism is seen in the recent Supreme Ct. decision that applies "free speech" protection to private corporate contributions ...in violation of precedent and certainly in violation of the understanding of limited liability corporations that prevailed at the time the constitution was written.

 

To go back to the 1920s, the end of another period of conservative political domination, Hoover had three years to pursued deficit reduction strategies to "right" the US economy. That story did not end well: the product was starvation in the US, an international depression of unprecedented scale, the rise of Nazism. Americans tend to ignore that it was the insistence of the people of Western Europe that, after the suffering of WWII, they not be plunged again into the marginal existence of the 1930s that led to the rise of the modern Welfare State, just as rejection of Hoover led to political realignment in the United States and the institution of Social Security, new labor law, etc. These were measures that redistributed wealth and, no doubt, "distorted" the paths these economies would have otherwise followed, but they also maintained social stability and democratic values.

 

Now, as in the 1920s/30s, the crisis is political as well as economic. I would argue that the mode of reasoning that Mr. Seacup employs frames the current problem as a threatened intervention in the economy by politics, as though the two exist in isolation. But a counterargument might be made that this is not a new intervention at all, but rather a political correction to a time when the intervention has favored existing wealth and power, an intervention necessary to redistribute power and wealth and to re-establish a more healthy foundation for both democracy and capitalism. This was FDR's argument about the New Deal. The workers that in the 1950s enjoyed a better standard of living because of unions and the GI bill and, in old age, social security, helped fuel the economic growth of that golden era of the American economy. Critics in the 1930s were sure the New Deal would undermine initiative and put American on the road to socialism. That's not how most of us remember the 1950s. Is it possible that better health/more efficient health care, better access to education, encouragement of energy innovation, and a better standard of living for those currently at the bottom of our society might spark a new period of economic well being. (I won't say "growth" --time to challenge that assumption, I think.)

 

What does this interpretation say about Heritage guitars? Well, in the 1930s, there was reborn in America a cultural appreciation of the worker and craftsmanship and functionality. If similar currents re-emerge, it would bode well for Heritage, I think. If people care not just about economic efficiency, but the quality of life that surrounds production ... that bodes well for Heritage.

 

With no intention of offending anyone . . . especially, Mr. 111518 . . . this sounds to me like a lecture coming from an ultra liberal economics professor/ideolgue at an ulta left University, such as Columbia or Princeton. This commentary references FDR's New Deal, but says nothing about it's contribution to extending the Great Depression. The program's tripling of Federal Tax on virtually everything left people with less money to spend and left corporations with less money to invest. His "redistribution of wealth". His National Industrial Recovery Act of 1933 forced people to buy goods at above market prices, further harming the market place. It cut back production and forced wages above market levels. The revenues collected from the confiscatory taxation were not redistributed to the south where the poorest states needed it the most. It went to the west and the east swing states where it could do he and his party the most good. Sound familiar??? The National Labor Relations Act of '35 really helped us all right. Just ask GM, Ford, American Motors, Chrysler, Alcoa. The classic case of the seen vs the unseen. We could see the jobs created under the New Deal . . . but we couldn't see the jobs lost as a result of the taxation under the New Deal. Sound familiar???

 

Regarding the Supreme Court's ruling this past January allowing corporations to contribute to campaigns . . . the amendment is written in terms of "speech" not speakers. It's text offers no foothold for excluding any catagory or origin . . . except maybe yelling fire in a crowded theater when there is none. If someone doesn't like the fact that Haliberton contributes to the GOP, then they should not vote for a GOP candidate.

 

The writer of the above commentary also confuses the work ethic of the people from the '40s and the '50s . . . and their expectations of entitlements, or more appripriately put, their lack of expectations of entitlements . . . with today's demographics. It was a different time . . . we are a different Nation . . . with a different and ever erroding quality of populous. That's what we need to turn around in this country . . . . and we're not going to do it with government growth out pacing the private sector, open borders, unconscionable government spending, corrupt government deal making, domestic and global political correctness, appeasement and apologies to countries who disagree with out freedom and liberties.

 

By the way . . . ya just gotta hear the tone from my new Johnny Smith . . .. WOW!!!

[cod65]

prices of Heritages have gone down. They will come back. Buy one and enjoy it(if you can). I wish I coulda picked up a few bargain lefties lately.

 

As far as economics go- we are mostly a bunch of spoilt babies who don't know what it's like to walk a mile for water, or collect soap scraps into a ball.

 

I for one welcome a time when musicians have to actually break into a sweat to get paid.

[tulk1]

I for one welcome a time when musicians have to actually break into a sweat to get paid.

Did that very thing this past weekend. 101+ during load-in and first set. Sweated my patootee off.

[big bob]

I think you guys forget just a little while back when a H-140 could be had for 500.00 and a H-170 for 450.00.

several years ago the list price on a 575 was at 2000.00 and new ones could be had for 1600-1700

 

I miss the good old days.

[TalismanRich]

I wish I could find the letter someone wrote to Vintage Guitar Magazine. They were wondering why their ES-335 had only appreciated in value from the 18,000 that it was assessed at in 2000 to 20,000 today (if I remember the numbers correctly). His comment was something like "shouldn't these go up 10-20% a year?" Obviously he didn't buy the guitar for it's tonal qualities, or the music he would make.

 

Yes, there are bargains out there today, but this too will change. Ebay prices seem to go in cycles. People search for what selling prices were, and then try to bump that. Eventually it maxes out and starts again.

 

A while back I wanted an H140. They were running about $7-800 a while back. (Missed a nice red one too... at least Fred brought it to PSPIII!) Then they jumped to $1100. I waited. Before long they were back down to 8-900.

 

Remember the mantra... buy low. sell high. Or better yet, buy low... keep it and play on.

[Dick Seacup]

I think you guys forget just a little while back when a H-140 could be had for 500.00 and a H-170 for 450.00.

several years ago the list price on a 575 was at 2000.00 and new ones could be had for 1600-1700

 

I miss the good old days.

 

I was lamenting the "good old days" at PSP3. Can't remember who I was talking to, though. Brent, I think for sure, maybe Rob, maybe Fred? If I had a time machine...

[schundog]

The economy is in the crapper and despite the assertions of those who wish to remain in power and those who wish to suck up to those who wish to remain in power, it isn't improving any time soon. It's a question of demographics and multiple cycles hitting a downturn at the same time. The baby boomer generation, the largest generation of American consumers ever, is hitting the point in the curve where they aren't spending. The next largest demographic, the so-called "echo boom" generation, still much smaller than the baby boomers, has just passed the peak of their age-related spending curve. It's a slow slide for them for about another 10-15 years, when they'll have a small up-tick and a brief, lower peak before slinking off into retirement land as well.

 

Now, you take the demographic pressure and push in the cyclical drop in equities (there is a ten year cycle, a four-year presidential cycle and another one that's longer but I can't remember what it's tied to; all three happen to be past their peak and heading into the trough again at the same time, though) coupled with the current commodity bubble nearing it's own peak (which will be followed, of course, by a decline) and you have a perfect storm brewing for an American version of the Japanese lost decade.

 

Except we're going to lose 15-20 years, not 10. And American's don't have the savings or relative wealth that the Japanese did when they started their slide. In fact, many American's have negative net asset value/net worth because they leveraged their McMansion's, using what equity they had as an ATM to fund their consumerist (some would say hedonist) lifestyle. There simply isn't going to be the purchasing pressure needed to keep the USian economy going at pre-2008 levels, and thus we need to readjust production, consumption and priorities. The amusing thing is that Our Government seems to not want to admit that no matter what Keynesian sleight of hand they employ, they don't have enough fingers to plug the dike. All of this deficit spending and massive over-expansion of government Will Not End Well because government revenues necessarily decline as economic participation is reduced. Jacking up the tax rates, fees and assessment only accelerates the decline.

 

Kondratiev had this figured out, in a rudimentary but significant fashion, back in the 1920s. Unfortunately, Comrade Stalin didn't like being told that he couldn't control nature and Comrade Kondratiev was "purged." It's interesting (perhaps only to me) to note that other economists...I think in Italy, but possibly France...had the nearly the same idea, although their long-wave cycles had periods shorter than Kondratiev's. Now, after the demise of our Russian friend, there was a battle in the West between the interventionist/socialist Keynesians and the laissez-faire Classical economists. To it's credit, Keynesian policy works in the short term. To it's demise, in the long run it causes massive distortions in the economy which dwarf the dangers of the initial crises.

 

At this point I will share one of my favorite "My Old Man" sayings: "Son, when you find yourself at the bottom of a deep dark hole, the first thing you ought to do is put down the shovel."

 

Much of long-wave theory has been updated and refined. There are many cycles, most of which interact in meaningful and complex ways. It's almost fractal, in a mind-boggling way. I think the writings and theories of Harry Dent are as good a place as any to start reading about modern long wave theory and I highly recommend doing so for anyone interested in where we've been, where we're at and where we are likely to be going. No system is infallible, and long wave has it's faults. It's interesting from a left-brain perspective.

 

Which brings us back to the price of Heritage guitars in the used market. There will be isolated dips and swells, of course, but I think the general trend for Heritage in the secondary market is to maintain, or slightly improve, their price strength, and thus value, relative to other brands of similar quality.

 

Of course, I'm a raving lunatic who only has access to the Internet for an hour each day in between group sharing and electroconvulsive therapy, so ignore most of what I just said. Oh, look, time for my lithium and thorazine....

 

 

Holy Crap, I consider myself a pretty bright guy, but you guys are making my melon hurt!! Bring it down to my level, will ya?! Anybody got any good fart jokes?! P.S., I agree with everything I think I understood, and I plan to get as many low dollar used Heritages as my gear fund and marital strength will allow.

[Dick Seacup]

Holy Crap, I consider myself a pretty bright guy, but you guys are making my melon hurt!! Bring it down to my level, will ya?! Anybody got any good fart jokes?! P.S., I agree with everything I think I understood, and I plan to get as many low dollar used Heritages as my gear fund and marital strength will allow.

 

I'm not very smart, I just ramble incessantly. My posts are the forum equivalent of a million monkeys banging on typewriters. That 111518 guy, on the other hand, has his poop in a group and is on a whole different plane from mere mortals. I dig his thoughts.

 

Here's a joke for you:

 

Two great white sharks swimming in the ocean spied survivors of a sinking ship. "Follow me son" the father shark said to the son shark and they swam to the mass of people. "First we swim around them a few times with just the tip of our fins showing." And they did. "Well done, son! Now we swim around them a few times with all of our fins showing." And they did. "Now we eat everybody." And they did.

 

When they were both gorged, the son asked,"Dad, why didn't we just eat them all at first? Why did we swim around and around them?"

 

His wise father replied, "Because they taste better without the shit inside them!"